Independent Macro and Strategy Research
What Should Be Done?
Primary Objective: Price stability should be the Federal Reserve’s nonnegotiable priority; sustained maximum employment depends on it.
Globicus Leading Economic Index
US ECONOMIC EXPANSION CONTINUES Executive Summary The Globicus Leading Economic Index signals sustained U.S. economic expansion into early 2026. Forward-looking indicators remain firmly positive, the yield curve has normalized, fiscal stimulus is forthcoming, and monetary policy remains accommodative relative to standard policy benchmarks. Globicus Leading Economic Indexes: Recent Developments and Business Cycle Assessment The Globicus suite of leading economic indexes—comprising the Total Leading Index, Long Leading Index, and Short Leading Index, is constructed to identify cyclical turning points and enhance the precision of forward-looking macroeconomic forecasts. These
NAVIGATING BY R-STAR: STRUCTURAL MONETARY POLICY AND RECESSION RISK
Summary: Navigating by R-Star presents a structural framework for evaluating U.S. monetary policy through the lens of the natural rate of interest (r*). By comparing the real federal funds rate to r*, the analysis identifies when policy is accommodative, restrictive, or neutral and traces how these regimes evolve across the business cycle. The report combines r* estimates, interest rates, inflation, and financial indicators to assess policy transmission and cyclical positioning, supported by visual analysis of rate-hiking and easing phases. A complementary structural recession risk model captures macro-financial stress