The Globicus/qEcon Research leading economic indexes’ growth rates are dropping, suggesting US economic growth is seriously slowing in late 2010. The overall leading economic index’ growth rate, a measure of future economic growth, was at 1.0 in July, down sharply from a 12.0 high in November.
US Recession Is Technically Over
The worst US recession since the 1930s is technically over. However, it is difficult to determine the exact date of the end of the recession as economic indicators are mixed with personal income and employment data still weak. The Globicus coincident index, while indicating the recession ended in June or August, has still not bottomed in a clear way.
Equities: Daily US Stocks
The major indexes have broken their strong uptrends. The appreciating dollar increases the deflationary risk and can end the bull market in stocks and the global recovery.
Fixed Income: Credit Spreads Indicate Recovery
Treasury interest rates have risen off their lows, credit spreads have narrowed and interbank rates have declined, indicating the financial panic is over and the economic outlook is improving.
Commodities: Daily Commodities
Commodities may be topping out as China tightens.
Precious Metals: Is Gold Making a Double Top?
Gold made a new all-time high of 1251.20 on Tuesday but closed below yesterday’s high.
December Globicus-qEcon Canadian LEI
The Globicus-qEcon Canadian overall leading economic index’ growth rate increased to 8.0 in December from 7.4 in November.
December Globicus-qEcon EMU LEI
The Globicus-qEcon EMU overall leading economic index’ growth rate remained at a high 5.0 in December.
December Globicus-qEcon German LEI
The Globicus-qEcon German overall leading economic index’ growth rate eased to 8.0 in December from 8.7 in November.
December Globicus-qEcon UK LEI
The Globicus-qEcon UK overall leading economic index’ growth rate declined to 4.0 in December from 6.5 in November.
December Globicus-qEcon Japanese LEI
The Globicus-qEcon Japanese overall leading economic index’ growth rate held steady at 5.4 in December.
December Globicus-qEcon Australian LEI
The Globicus-qEcon Australian overall leading economic index’ growth rate rose to 2.3 in December from 1.3 in November.
July Conference Board US LEI
The Conference Board US leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, increased modestly as forecast 0.1% m/m to 109.8 in July, the second gain in three months, after a downwardly revised 0.3% m/m decline in June, LEI data from the Conference Board showed, suggesting US economic growth is slowing down in H2 2010.
July Canadian LEI
The Canadian leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, was up a less-than-expected 0.4% m/m to 241.8 in July, a 14th straight monthly rise but the slowest since June 2009, after a downwardly revised 0.7% m/m increase in June, according to LEI data from Statistics Canada.
Final June Japanese LEI
The Japanese leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, rose to 99.0 (vs. preliminarily reported 98.9) in June, the first rise in three months, from 98.6 in May, according to final June LEI data from the Cabinet Office.
June Westpac-Melbourne Institute Australian LEI
Australia’s economic growth, while still high, is slowing down modestly. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Australian leading economic indicators index edged down to 265.8 in June from an upwardly revised 265.9 in May, Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute reported.
A Primer on Deflation
In the WWII period, low inflation did not induce fears of deflation because economists believed the institutions created by the Keynesian revolution had a bias toward inflation. After more than 50 years of absence, deflation has now reappeared on the agenda as something to worry about. So what is deflation? Deflation is defined as persistent declines in the general price level.
The News
