Leading Indicators Globicus Leading Indicators Globicus LEI Signals US Economic Recovery in Q3
| Globicus LEI Signals US Economic Recovery in Q3 |
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| Leading Economic Indicators - Globicus Leading Indicators |
| Written by Hans Nilsson |
| Sunday, 03 May 2009 11:39 |
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The Globicus/qEcon Research US leading economic index reached a low of -8.7 in December 2008, the lowest level since the 1980 recession. Having risen every month since then, the index was at -1.6 in April indicating an end to the Great Recession. At -8.1 smoothed growth rate, the coincident index shows the US economy contracted at the fastest rate since 1974. The LEI is rising; thus, we stick with our Q3 economic recovery forecast.
The long leading index turned higher in November after the Federal Reserve adjusted its monetary policy after the Lehman Brothers debacle in September. The short leading index’s trough was in December at -16.7; having improved since then, the indicator rose to -7.6 in April.
The leading employment index indicates improving employment situation albeit at a slow rate.
The LEI stock-market relation indicates a strong case for buying stocks, probably the best since the 1950s.
Globicus.com New York, May 3, 2009 |
| Last Updated on Monday, 25 May 2009 00:09 |
