US Recession Is Technically Over
The worst US recession since the 1930s is technically over. However, it is difficult to determine the exact date of the end of the recession as economic indicators are mixed with personal income and employment data still weak. The Globicus coincident index, while indicating the recession ended in June or August, has still not bottomed in a clear way.
Equities: Daily US Stocks
The major indexes have broken their strong uptrends. The appreciating dollar increases the deflationary risk and can end the bull market in stock and the global recovery.
Fixed Income: Credit Spreads Indicate Recovery
Treasury interest rates have risen off their lows, credit spreads have narrowed and interbank rates have declined, indicating the financial panic is over and the economic outlook is improving.
Commodities: Daily Commodities
Commodities may be topping out as China tightens.
December Globicus-qEcon Canadian LEI
The Globicus-qEcon Canadian overall leading economic index’ growth rate increased to 8.0 in December from 7.4 in November.
December Globicus-qEcon EMU LEI
The Globicus-qEcon EMU overall leading economic index’ growth rate remained at a high 5.0 in December.
December Globicus-qEcon German LEI
The Globicus-qEcon German overall leading economic index’ growth rate eased to 8.0 in December from 8.7 in November.
December Globicus-qEcon UK LEI
The Globicus-qEcon UK overall leading economic index’ growth rate declined to 4.0 in December from 6.5 in November.
December Globicus-qEcon Japanese LEI
The Globicus-qEcon Japanese overall leading economic index’ growth rate held steady at 5.4 in December.
December Globicus-qEcon Australian LEI
The Globicus-qEcon Australian overall leading economic index’ growth rate rose to 2.3 in December from 1.3 in November.
January Canadian LEI
Canada’s leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, rose a slightly less than-expected 0.9% m/m to 231.1 in January, an eighth consecutive monthly rise, after a 1.5% m/m December gain that was the largest in almost 27 years, LEI data from Statistics Canada showed, pointing to continuing Canadian economic growth.
Preliminary January Japanese LEI
The Japanese leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, rose to a higher-than-expected 97.1 in January, an eleventh straight monthly rise, from 94.3 in December, according to preliminary January LEI data released by the Cabinet Office.
November Australian Westpac-Melbourne Institute LEI
The pace of the Australian economic recovery has progressed remarkably. The Australian Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading economic index, a measure of future economic activity, increased 1.0% m/m to 256.8 in November, with its annualized growth rate accelerating to 7.6%, the fastest pace since November 2007, from October’s 5.8%, Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute reported.
A Primer on Deflation
In the WWII period, low inflation did not induce fears of deflation because economists believed the institutions created by the Keynesian revolution had a bias toward inflation. After more than 50 years of absence, deflation has now reappeared on the agenda as something to worry about. So what is deflation? Deflation is defined as persistent declines in the general price level.
