Weblogic

Home
Globicus Macroeconomic Research
Daily Headlines PDF Print E-mail

New York, March 10, 2010

Currencies: Debt Worries Pressure European Currencies 

While lower against the yen and commodity currencies, the dollar was higher versus the European currencies on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 1.95 on the bull market’s 1-year anniversary to 1,140.45, up 69% since hitting a 12-year low of 676.53 one year ago. The euro fell on renewed credit concerns over the PIIGS. According to Fitch Ratings, Portugal’s rating could be downgraded if fiscal consolidation was insufficient and Spain was vulnerable because of its inflexible labor market. The USD/JPY declined. Japan’s LEI rose for an eleventh consecutive month. The AUD/USD advanced as Australia’s job vacancies rose by the most in more than a decade and business confidence climbed for a second month. The USD/CAD fell for an eighth straight day, approaching the important 1.02-area support. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Canada is studying the sale of government assets. We buy the USD/CAD with stop at 1.0150, trying to take advantage of a possible triple-bottom. See also other recent currency reports. 

US Macro: February NFIB US Small Business Optimism

The NFIB US small business optimism index unexpectedly declined to 88.0 in February from 89.3 in January, showing US small business optimism fell back to December’s level, according to data from the National Federation of Independent Business. See also other recent updates on US economic data and macroeconomic trends.

Europe Macro: January UK Trade Deficit

The UK deficit on trade in goods and services unexpectedly widened to £3.8 billion ($5.7 billion) in January from a revised £2.6 billion deficit in December, and the deficit on trade in goods swelled to £8.0 billion, the most since August 2008, from December’s revised £7.0 billion deficit, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.

Asia Macro: February NAB Australian Business Sentiment

The NAB Australian business sentiment index increased to 19 in February from 15 in January, indicating Australia’s business confidence rose for a second month and matched November’s 7-year high, according to a survey released by National Australia Bank Ltd.

Globicus US LEI Indicates US Economy Expanding with Employment Growth in 2010 

The Globicus-qEcon US leading economic indexes may be peaking at high levels, suggesting the US economic recovery is steadily progressing in 2010. The overall leading economic index’ growth rate, a measure of future economic growth, was at 10.8 in January, near an 11.0 high in December. The short leading index' growth rate remained high at 11.0 in January, a tad below December’s 11.9 high. The long leading index' growth rate was at 10.7 in January, slightly below September’s 11.7 peak. Overall, the LEI numbers indicate the US economic expansion is intact for Q1-Q2 2010 and possibly for Q3 2010. Meanwhile, the coincident index' growth rate, a measure of current economic growth, has improved steadily and increased to -1.6 in December from -2.8 in November. US GDP expanded at a 5.7% annualized rate in Q4 2009, the second quarterly expansion and the fastest in six years, after growing at a 2.2% annualized pace in Q3, ending the longest stretch of declines since records began in 1947. The coincident number points to June 2009 as the trough of the great recession.

 

US Recession Is Technically Over

The worst US recession since the 1930s is technically over. However, it is difficult to determine the exact date of the end of the recession as economic indicators are mixed with personal income and employment data still weak. The Globicus coincident index, while indicating the recession ended in June or August, has still not bottomed in a clear way.

Equities: Daily US Stocks 

The major indexes have broken their strong uptrends. The appreciating dollar increases the deflationary risk and can end the bull market in stock and the global recovery. 

Fixed Income: Credit Spreads Indicate Recovery

Treasury interest rates have risen off their lows, credit spreads have narrowed and interbank rates have declined, indicating the financial panic is over and the economic outlook is improving.

Commodities: Daily Commodities

Commodities may be topping out as China tightens.

December Globicus-qEcon Canadian LEI 

The Globicus-qEcon Canadian overall leading economic index’ growth rate increased to 8.0 in December from 7.4 in November.

December Globicus-qEcon EMU LEI 

The Globicus-qEcon EMU overall leading economic index’ growth rate remained at a high 5.0 in December.

December Globicus-qEcon German LEI 

The Globicus-qEcon German overall leading economic index’ growth rate eased to 8.0 in December from 8.7 in November.

December Globicus-qEcon UK LEI 

The Globicus-qEcon UK overall leading economic index’ growth rate declined to 4.0 in December from 6.5 in November.

December Globicus-qEcon Japanese LEI 

The Globicus-qEcon Japanese overall leading economic index’ growth rate held steady at 5.4 in December.

December Globicus-qEcon Australian LEI 

The Globicus-qEcon Australian overall leading economic index’ growth rate rose to 2.3 in December from 1.3 in November.

January Canadian LEI

Canada’s leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, rose a slightly less than-expected 0.9% m/m to 231.1 in January, an eighth consecutive monthly rise, after a 1.5% m/m December gain that was the largest in almost 27 years, LEI data from Statistics Canada showed, pointing to continuing Canadian economic growth.

Preliminary January Japanese LEI

The Japanese leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, rose to a higher-than-expected 97.1 in January, an eleventh straight monthly rise, from 94.3 in December, according to preliminary January LEI data released by the Cabinet Office.

November Australian Westpac-Melbourne Institute LEI

The pace of the Australian economic recovery has progressed remarkably. The Australian Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading economic index, a measure of future economic activity, increased 1.0% m/m to 256.8 in November, with its annualized growth rate accelerating to 7.6%, the fastest pace since November 2007, from October’s 5.8%, Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute reported.

A Primer on Deflation

In the WWII period, low inflation did not induce fears of deflation because economists believed the institutions created by the Keynesian revolution had a bias toward inflation. After more than 50 years of absence, deflation has now reappeared on the agenda as something to worry about. So what is deflation? Deflation is defined as persistent declines in the general price level.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 10 March 2010 00:37
 

Who's Online

We have 3 guests online
Joomla Templates by JoomlaShack